As Gambia's opposition leaders finally unite, except GDC who many alleged are still part of the APRC.
Last Friday was a welcome news for all sincere and peace loving Gambians, many of who have been in this struggle for at least two decades, as they gave a sigh of relief as all the parties except GDC signed the much anticipated agreement for procedures to select a single candidate to face the incumbent. Gambians were left open mouthed though, when GDC, the newest party of The Gambia refused to sign, citing their unhappiness with the numbers. What is baffling is that the only hint that GDC was prepared and willing to go for primaries was when this paper had a radio interview with the PR of the party Alhagie Essa Jallow, few weeks ago, with no other hints from its diaspora members to suggest primaries are the only options for this party.
Many pundits approaching us narrated the opportunity that GDC seems to have forgone partly due to a genuine mistake on their part and failing to do the maths right, whilst others pointed out to the fact that indeed GDC is still in bed with APRC, or otherwise being intimidated into refusing to join the coalition. This later claim has been buttressed by the fact that the GDC leader has in fact just returned to the Gambian jurisdiction, from his self imposed exile in Senegal due to the threat of violence against his person, received by the GDC executive from Kandeh's former party leader.
What is baffling is that convention or primaries, are in fact the same things, with the required number of delegates being the deciding factor, with 70 for each party for the convention, whilst 5000 party supporters for the primaries. One thing we learn from statistics and data science is that, a sample is a representative of the whole and though not directly representative, it can be used to gauge the whole populations safely, therefore if GDC is confident that it has the majority among the oppositions, it should not hide behind percentage or the sample to derail the coalition building process.
It seems they based their withdrawal from such an important project based on either further threats of violence against their leadership from the incumbent or they have really messed the maths up and are jittery that their perceived majority is not really a majority. For one thing is clear from the present political situation, anyone who can bring in 70 delegates from each region is very much likely to poll 5000 from each region. GDC's concern about dormant parties being king makers, although sounds genuine in the face of such allegations, it is however obvious to anyone following Gambian politics, that those he termed as dormant and not offering candidates, will not be able to get the 70 people from around the country. Therefore this paper believe that the fight will be between Sallah, Barrow and Touray and as Touray, being an independent, may not want to bring constituents to vote for her, hence our assertion that GDC indeed, has just thrown away or lost an opportunity.
Other intelligence reports reaching this paper points out the fact that Mama Kandeh may even be disqualified from standing on nomination day, due to his low level of education or past affiliations with the APRC regime and is therefore just wasting valuable time and resources and best served by joining the coalition but he can still join, when Jammeh's plans to refuse him registration as a candidate matures.